Stock price messages for CRIS (Jan '06)

Posted: Mon Jan 23, 2006 9:20 pm

News that came out is not what they “anticipated.” My guess is that this will drive the stock down. I might think about buying a few more shares if it dips. Any thoughts as to how low it will go? Low 3’s?

Symbol: CRIS
Last Trade: 3.70 6:48PM ET
After Hours Change: 0.22 (5.61%)
Today's Change: 0.14 (3.65%)
Bid: 1.01
Ask: 6.74

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:36 am

Drew,

We can try to sping this. In retrospect, looking at how erratic the stock behave last year, the market was already pricing CRIS for failure. The stock just quit reacting to good news and today it's getting hammered. I have to take and wait and see attitude, generally speaking the market is usually right and us retail investors are wrong. Our emotions keep getting in the way.

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:39 am

HH,

I just saw this post of yours and the market is already open. I thought that the PPS could touch the low 2's,say 2.25,at some point today. If you wait for the dust to settle a bit I am sure that you will be able to add shares for weeks to come. This news needs to be digested and it will take time for some investors to say yay or nay about Curis.

In other words, I am sure you will have ample time to decide if and how much you want to add to your holdings.

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:56 am

I must have missed it, but what is the bad news that caused the big drop?

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 8:58 am

sam wrote:

I must have missed it, but what is the bad news that caused the big drop?

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060123/20060123006007.html?.v=1

Quote:

To date, 29 of the Phase I clinical trial patients have participated in a dose-escalation segment, in which seven patients were randomized to receive treatment in one of four dose levels. The dose-escalation segment of the Phase I clinical trial was recently completed, and the preliminary data have been reviewed by an internal Genentech data review board. The preliminary data from the dose-escalation segment suggest that the drug candidate appears likely to be safe, well tolerated, and has shown signs of activity. However, there has been less clinical activity observed to date than anticipated. Based on these data, the internal data review board recommended that Genentech and Curis temporarily suspend further enrollment in the second segment of the trial, in which additional patients were to be treated at the highest dose level from the dose escalation segment. The companies will determine to re-open enrollment in this segment based on a secondary interim analysis that will occur at a later date. The internal data review board also recommended that a third segment of the trial that is evaluating biological activity using a pharmacodynamic endpoint be enrolled as planned. This third segment, among other things, may shed light on the extent to which the active compound in the drug candidate as formulated is penetrating the patients' skin.

THe question is how low will it go? I don't think this is the end of BCC...

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 9:11 am

HH,

Honestly, I think we will see the 2.25 area today. Some longs will be adding more to their holdings since they are factoring in other programs that Curis is working on.

Recall when ELN and BIIB halted their program? ELN went from approx. 22 down to the 7 or 8 range. I think that was within the last 10 months Looking at ELN today it has doubled from its low....though still well off its high. If you know what you are invested in, the panic selling can work to your advantage ,to add to your holdings or take a new position. Those I know who are invested in ELN and who held onto their positions during that rocky time are solid in their view of ELN.

Posted: Tue Jan 24, 2006 1:53 pm

Anonymous wrote:

HH,

Honestly, I think we will see the 2.25 area today. Some longs will be adding more to their holdings since they are factoring in other programs that Curis is working on.

Recall when ELN and BIIB halted their program? ELN went from approx. 22 down to the 7 or 8 range. I think that was within the last 10 months Looking at ELN today it has doubled from its low....though still well off its high. If you know what you are invested in, the panic selling can work to your advantage ,to add to your holdings or take a new position. Those I know who are invested in ELN and who held onto their positions during that rocky time are solid in their view of ELN.

Yes I’m definitely going to add as soon as I get some more info from dna or cris. I serious doubt this is the end of BCC. It just doesn’t add up. The only thing that makes sense is that their topical formulation is incorrect.
Think

Posted: Wed Jan 25, 2006 1:38 pm

Hopefully the stock will hold or go up from this level. Pending on what they see with clinical activity we could see another drop. Clinical activity should be done by May- June? If anybody understands the FDA please see my post under “pipeline” and then “genentech antagonist BCC”

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 3:48 pm

HH,

You stated:

"Hopefully the stock will hold or go up from this level. Pending on what they see with clinical activity we could see another drop. Clinical activity should be done by May- June? If anybody understands the FDA please see my post under “pipeline” and then “genentech antagonist BCC” "

I looked under the area you specified for a post re' FDA. I was unable to locate it. If you are wondering how long the FDA process might be for some of these programs you need to have a 10 - 15 year timeframe to be invested, IMO. Many pipeline drugs/programs have taken 20 years to develope from lab to final FDA approval.

Posted: Mon Jan 30, 2006 7:21 pm

Anonymous wrote:

I looked under the area you specified for a post re' FDA. I was unable to locate it. If you are wondering how long the FDA process might be for some of these programs you need to have a 10 - 15 year timeframe to be invested, IMO. Many pipeline drugs/programs have taken 20 years to develope from lab to final FDA approval.

I think this is what HH, was referring to

"My best guess is going to be that they are going to have to redo the topical formulation, and I don’t know enough about the FDA to say how much that is going to set them back? Do you have any ideas?"

Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 5:52 am

Guest,

Thanks for finding that. I see that you did not offer an answer to HH on his question.

To my best knowledge, reformulating the topical and granting FDA approval are two separate issues for the time being. The topical needs to be reworked and the trial needs to begin another testing phase to gather information in order to apply to the FDA for approval.

Right now the timeline hinges on the ability of the researchers to get the formula down pat. This could take an additional year + depending on the manpower supplied and the possiblity of CRIS/DNA already having a decent backup plan in place. If they have no backup formula in mind, the timeline stretches further out.

Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2006 7:46 am

Anonymous wrote:

Guest,

Thanks for finding that. I see that you did not offer an answer to HH on his question.

To my best knowledge, reformulating the topical and granting FDA approval are two separate issues for the time being. The topical needs to be reworked and the trial needs to begin another testing phase to gather information in order to apply to the FDA for approval.

Right now the timeline hinges on the ability of the researchers to get the formula down pat. This could take an additional year + depending on the manpower supplied and the possiblity of CRIS/DNA already having a decent backup plan in place. If they have no backup formula in mind, the timeline stretches further out.

Thanks,
So if the Hh inhibitor is really not working because of the cream formula then curis/dna would be set back about a year plus. That seems reasonable. By that time I’m thinking Genentech will file an IND for solid tumors.